Curse

Sooty · Jan 28, 2007, 04:31 AM // 04:31

I've been noticing something weird with the drops this weekend. I've spoken to the guys in my alliance and the same thing is happening for them. I'm going to use probably the most farmed green in Cantha as my example: Scar Eater. I don't actually need scar eaters but i just find farming him quite fun for some reason. Anyways...

With the last triple green drop weekend in Cantha, Scar Eater would drop his green perhaps once every 2 or 3 goes at least and often more than this. This happened even though a very high number of people were farming him.

This event however, Scar Eater seems to be dropping his Green much much less often. e.g. Yesterday I killed him around 8 times before getting the drop and then i got quite a few within a few runs which i thought was probably things working as they should. However today I logged on and farmed him 10-15 times: nothing. Then i went to farm some Kaolin and got plenty of greens. Then I went back to Scar Eater, again nothing after another 10 or so goes. So I am now avoiding him in case of anti farm. I thought I may just have been unlucky and didnt get the drop before anti farm kicked in, however i noticed a number of people in the alliance were complaining of the same thing today.

Could it be that because so many people are farming him his green is being shared across all the farmers? I was under the impression each player had a given chance to get the greens in an instance regardless of what other players were doing. The fact that the event is a blanket triple drop rate seems to support my way of thinking on that. However in that case, why is one particular boss dropping much less frequently than other bosses?

SodOffShotgun · Jan 28, 2007, 04:35 AM // 04:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooty

Could it be that because so many people are farming him his green is being shared across all the farmers?

It's been said many times by Gaile that this isnt the case. I dont know why or if you really are getting the shaft in green drops but it has nothing to do with the number of people farming him.

And I've never had such good luck where I got a green every 2 or 3 tries even during triple green events. Other people are reporting that they're doing just fine. It's most likely just a streak of bad luck in your case.

Cacheelma · Jan 28, 2007, 04:41 AM // 04:41

I think we should make a sticky saying "Your drops are NOT depending on other people OUTSIDE your instance."

....maybe at least during any of the 3x drop weekends. I'm kinda tired of these people throwing such myth around, despite Gaile's words.

Sooty · Jan 28, 2007, 04:46 AM // 04:46

Well yeah that's what i thought too but then a group of people in my alliance said something along the lines of whats with the drops today for SE, it was good yesterday....

I'm thinking it's anti farm going a bit funny because other bosses are fine with their drop rate. It's odd that I would be on anti farm during a green drop event before actually getting the green though. To not get one SE is unusual after so many runs even if it wasn't a green drop event. As most regular E/A A/E farmers would know Scar Eater actually seems to be one of those bosses who is more happy to hand over his green than others.

And even if i am just unlucky, whats with the other guys in my alliance who've got 1 or none SE's today where yesterday they got plenty? Perhaps it's anti farm that's changed, since all of us farmed him a lot yesterday and then logged off overnight. Maybe we were still 'flagged' this morning.

edit: and i'm not throwing myths around i'm telling you whats happened to me and several other people today. We're not noobs, i'm not trying to start something, i'm just saying that somethin weird is happenin with this one boss today, that is all.

KANE OG · Jan 28, 2007, 04:46 AM // 04:46

Got it on the fourth try with a full party (2 real people and heroes). Let's put a freakin end to these dumbass "things aren't dropping" threads! For God's sake these things are RANDOM! End of story. There is no method or madness... it's RANDOM! Just move on!

KANE OG · Jan 28, 2007, 04:47 AM // 04:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cacheelma

I think we should make a sticky saying "Your drops are NOT depending on other people OUTSIDE your instance."

....maybe at least during any of the 3x drop weekends. I'm kinda tired of these people throwing such myth around, despite Gaile's words.

No one will read it, sticky or not.

SodOffShotgun · Jan 28, 2007, 04:54 AM // 04:54

Yeah people won't read the sticky threads but at least mods then can delete any of these threads on site. Spreading myths is bad.

Sooty · Jan 28, 2007, 04:58 AM // 04:58

umm no they are not random. Each green typically has a certain chance to drop. This % chance may or may not be higher or lower for certain bosses.

During a Green Weekend this % chance is increased, in this case multiplied by 3. Hence if a green typically drops 20% of the time, this weekend it drops 60% of the time. Yes you may have long streaks of bad luck where you don't get the drop, but statistically over an infinite number of attempts you will get the drop 60% of the time. The only influence on this is anti farm, which we don't know a lot about.

Seriously guys read the OP before posting some crap about spreading myths, I'm telling you what i've observed and postulating on why that was observed. If you have observed something else or the same then say so. If you want to respond to a thread spreading myths then go somewhere else because thats not what this is about.

Edit: Was just speaking with whoever was in Vasburg in the all chat, for some people it's fine and they're getting quite a few scar eaters at a 'normal' rate for the weekend, other people are not getting a single one after many runs. So seems to be either 'as expected' or 'none at all'.

Lotrfish · Jan 28, 2007, 06:16 AM // 06:16

I've been getting them at about every 6-8 runs solo. Not as high as you say is normal, but at least I'm getting some.

strcpy · Jan 28, 2007, 06:20 AM // 06:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooty

umm no they are not random.

Yes they are, you go on to describe a random system - or at least as close to random as a computer can get. A 20% chance doesn't mean that you will get 2 drops every ten runs - it means that you have a 1/5 chance of getting that drop. Think of it this way - you flip a coin 10,000 times and get heads every time - what is the chance you will get heads on the next flip? 1/2 - every flip is the same chance. If done enough someone will do this, in fact if done enough someone will never get tails their whole life - it just take a *really* large amount of transactions.

Random systems also tend to attract superstitious people - it's random so some get lucky and some get screwed. You can easily find people who have "systems" for winning coin tosses that swear they have found a pattern. People who think that carrying things like a rabbit foot (or other charm) somehow in someway create a situation where a coin flip isn't close to 1/2 as to the outcome even though if they actually took enough samples it would come back 1/2.

The devs know how they calculate drops - while code can be complex and some interactions tough it is not hard to know if you keep track of farmers per area or not. That's not something that just gets accumulated while no one knows it and the game reacts to it with no one being the wiser - we do not have SkyNet and a self aware system that modifies itself.

The devs, through Gaile, say they do not. You can assume they are lying, but then just make up whatever system you like as there is no basis other than your own thoughts for it.

Cacheelma · Jan 28, 2007, 07:42 AM // 07:42

You dare bringing stats up and fail to realise that your sample size is far FAR away from "big enough", right?

Kityn · Jan 28, 2007, 07:51 AM // 07:51

Canthan Greens are dropping about 1 out of 3 runs for me. I have not heard of what you are experiancing from any of my Guildmates or Alliance members. Could be just bad luck.

SodOffShotgun · Jan 28, 2007, 08:04 AM // 08:04

Why is this thread still open?

Mesmer in Need · Jan 28, 2007, 08:11 AM // 08:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by strcpy

. Think of it this way - you flip a coin 10,000 times and get heads every time - what is the chance you will get heads on the next flip? 1/2 - every flip is the same chance.

there ya go. if you farmed it 10 times and noo drop, chances are that you would get one soon after. therefore, its not random.

Patrick Smit · Jan 28, 2007, 08:27 AM // 08:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mesmer in Need

there ya go. if you farmed it 10 times and noo drop, chances are that you would get one soon after. therefore, its not random.

This is basically not true, a chance is not determined or increased by formed events, unless its a draw without putting drawed items back.

I would guess this mechanic is not used in an instance of GW monster drops. You cannot determine how big the chance is that it will drop next time. you can only calculate how unlucky you were for not getting it in x runs*.

* therefor u can also determine what the CHANCE is to get it in X runs. But you must abide by this, chances are no certainty.

Sooty · Jan 28, 2007, 11:12 AM // 11:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by SodOffShotgun

Why is this thread still open?

Why are you still posting? Your less than one month's participation in this community is hardly awe-inspiring so perhaps you should refrain from telling the mods what to do.

At any rate, the green situation for today is:

After 34 attempts spread over the entire day. Zero Scar Eaters.

After 3 attempts at each of the three kaolin staffs, I came away with one of each. So that's 3 from 9.

Sunreach dropped first go (lucky me).

Those are the results. 34 for zero drops is pretty bad in my books compared to the other drops I got but there ya go. Considering it was the only boss to never drop all day after so many attempts i find it a little odd, hence this thread. If it's just bad luck it's pretty specific bad luck around one boss, that's the part that seems weird. Anti farm seems like a logical explanation, in which case it must have included the runs i'd made 12 hrs before my first one today.

Anarion Silverhand · Jan 28, 2007, 11:20 AM // 11:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by SodOffShotgun

Why is this thread still open?

Gotta love +1 postcount posts.

On-topic, as people have stated, drops are entirely random. Don't think you're nerfed, because I've done my share of the Scar Eater runs and just got one after 15+ runs.

SodOffShotgun · Jan 28, 2007, 11:30 AM // 11:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anarion Silverhand

Gotta love +1 postcount posts.

On-topic, as people have stated, drops are entirely random. Don't think you're nerfed, because I've done my share of the Scar Eater runs and just got one after 15+ runs.

And gotta love stupid pointless assumptions, I couldnt give a crap about my post count and I'm pretty amazed anyone else would either.

I was asking a legitimate question since the thread was started on a baseless assumption and another one of those threads that spreads the myth that the number of people online affects drops. Plus the question he asked was already answered, hell I was the one to answer it in the second post, so what's left to debate?

glountz · Jan 28, 2007, 01:55 PM // 13:55

I had a strange feeling while farming greens.
Of course, that's only a feeling, but...
I went with my GF and 6 heroes/henchies to advance our remaining prophecies characters through factions campaign.
And also I went solo farming with an Ass/El and my G/X to farm solos some greens.
Surprisingly, I had no real difference between green drops with my GF and solo.
Farmed solo Quansong 5 times, no green.
Farmes solo Scar eater 4 times, one green on fourth run.
Went with my GF to Mourning Veil Falls for Elite capping: 3 greens.
Of course it could be only luck, but this is quite strange.
But if some people could count their success rate (greens found/number of runs pondered by people in groups). Just to see some numbers....

ss1986v2 · Jan 28, 2007, 02:08 PM // 14:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooty

Seriously guys read the OP before posting some crap about spreading myths, I'm telling you what i've observed and postulating on why that was observed. If you have observed something else or the same then say so. If you want to respond to a thread spreading myths then go somewhere else because thats not what this is about.

its just thats there is no reason to postulate an alternate theory. we know for fact that green drops are not determined by the number of ppl farming the instance. any attempt to disprove fact will be met with a bit of opposition.

drops are random, ie you could do 100 runs and still get nothing, while i could do 5 runs and get the drop each time. no conspiracy.